Could China Ride to the Rescue of Ukraine?
For the past two years very few news bulletins have been without mention of the invasion of Ukraine. I have listened to and read countless commentaries and analyses but not one has suggested an outcome that must surely have been discussed in the political and military strategy think-tanks of concerned governments. Here is why I believe it is a possible – even probable – solution to a conflict that endangers the whole word.
World power following the re-election of Donald Trump
The USA was the dominant world power and its military might still cannot be disregarded. However, the country is now the plaything of Donald Trump and so random and haphazard in its actions that it cannot be relied upon for anything that does not fit with his current whim. It remains to be seen whether the Trump-loaded Supreme Court will do anything to curb his autocratic style or prevent him changing the constitution so he can become president for life. As an aside, the NY Times recently published statistics detailing the seemingly inexorable shift of US voter registrations from Democrat to Republican, so don’t expect anything sensible from that quarter in my lifetime. Trump’s USA is becoming a ‘loser state’, increasingly irrelevant to the rest of the world as it demonstrates that it is untrustworthy and insular. It has forgotten the value of being seen as a friendly power.
Russia is now little more that the determination of Putin to stay in power. It will win very little if it forces Ukraine into a humiliating peace deal and anything less would be a defeat for Putin. It is difficult to imagine that Putin would then have the credibility to recreate the Soviet Union or empire of Katherine the Great. Under Putin Russia has nothing to offer the world apart from oil and mayhem. Beyond the arts and drug-fuelled sporting success it can boast few achievements since the end of WWII. Putin has staked so much on Ukraine that he will not be forgiven the privations of the population, the inevitable cost of a long war, should it end in humiliation. Trump has failed to grasp that Putin will not voluntarily end the war unless he can present it as a heroic victory.
China is also under the control of a single man, but one who has a better record than most autocrats in advancing the lot of most of his countrymen. President Xi has schmoozed Putin in the short term, probably to keep a historic enemy off his borders and to ‘legitimise’ his imperialist ambitions. He certainly does not need Russia. Indeed, the diversion of so much European (and other) states’ GDP to rearmament against the Russian threat has dented China’s export market. The public realisation in Europe of the end of the cosy post-war peace may also have increased suspicion of the motives of China and a desire to see its influence and strength curbed. It is difficult to believe that President Xi has not had a word or two with President Putin about the reputational and economic damage the Ukraine invasion is doing to both their domains.
Europe’s combined economic and military might would represent a formidable obstacle to the expansionist ambitions of Russia. Unfortunately it is fragmented, both within and beyond the EU, and has demonstrated its inability to reach consensus quickly enough to take action in the way that a totalitarian state can. It has more-or-less admitted that it cannot even maintain a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine without the big guns of USA. Much the same can be said of the rest of ‘the coalition of the willing’.
India, Iran and the Middle Eastern states seem to have little to gain from giving active support to either adversary, at least until it is clear who will be a clear victor.
What's in it for President Xi?
As Russia and USA become pariah states China has a window to advance its influence and prestige. Such a win would put off the day when there could be the slightest suggestion that Xi is losing his grip. If only the larger states of Europe could delay or cancel their plans to increase their defence spending and re-armament, there will be more for them to spend on Chinese goods and services. A quick end to hostilities in Ukraine and the neutralisation of Russian imperialism would allow them to do just that. European states would also offer less of a threat to the autonomy of China and its expansionist ambitions. (It is easy to argue that there is no threat to China from Europe but paranoia remains, and an external enemy is an essential part of every autocrat’s toolkit.)
As a key ally of the states of Europe, having lost their historic protector, and must also fear for the ongoing value of NATO, President Xi would start to demolish the wall of suspicion and fear of the enormous might and technological reach of China. A friendly giant in stead of a scary one!
What could happen?
President Xi offers Ukraine all the weapons it requires to knock Russia out of the Donbas and possibly Crimea, too. It would not need to supply troops (possibly some technicians) a limitless supply of advanced weaponry in the hands of the Uranian troops, determined to fight the aggressor, would quickly turn the tide. Xi would argue that he would never attack his Russian friends but that he seeks to bring about the peace where Trump has spectacularly failed.
Putin would be powerless to do anything against China without risking outright war with his more powerful neighbour. It is difficult to predict how quickly Putin would become marginalised and replaced but surely it must happen. In order to avoid total national humiliation (not in Xi’s interests) a peace agreement would be made with someone acceptable to Xi, who would drop all imperialist ambitions.
From the Uranian perspective, President Zelensky has no other credible source of major weaponry so must accept, with assurances for future sovereignty and independence.
This intervention (not really very costly for China) would amount to a virtually bloodless conquest by China of Russia. Russia would be permitted to exist as a ‘junior partner’, a customer for China’s output and a source of resources and labour but would have to cede control of its nuclear weapons.
Europe would be grateful for the removal of an enemy on its doorstep, given that USA is unreliable, making NATO also potentially toothless. Europe would, of course, be fearful of the greater power and influence of China but would need to play along with the world’s most powerful nation, by far. No longer USA.
China will, of course, acquire Taiwan and the China Sea control it desires. Trump, as all bullies, is also a coward, and will leave Taiwan to its fate. Countries around the Pacific Rim will shudder and a new world order will have been established. Not all stories have a happy ending.